Across the pond

The Guardian splashes this morning with a story that is bad news for those, like me, who would like to see a change in the leadership of the Labour Party sooner rather than later. It is based on the results of the latest Guardian/ICM opinion poll.

The headline, like most newspaper headlines, leaves no room for doubt.

Change of leader would not help Labour beat Cameron

But if you read the story carefully what the poll results signify is not quite that.

The pollsters asked who would made the best Prime Minister between David Cameron and Gordon Brown and between David Cameron and David Miliband. While it is true that currently Miliband has been the most talked up contender for the crown in the last few weeks, ever since he wrote that article in The Guardian without a single mention of Gordon Brown, it is by no means certain that Miliband would win a Labour Party election. Jack Straw, Alan Johnson, Harriet Harman and Jon Cruddas all have their supporters across the supporter. And there is also the possibility that if the Party decides to have an election some other candidate might emerge, whose name has not been trumpeted by the media. There is no shortage of potential leaders who have ample ministerial experience as well as grass roots support.

The results of the Cameron versus Brown, show 42 per cent for Cameron, 21 per cent for Brown and 23 per cent for neither. Those for Cameron versus Miliband show 40 per cent for Cameron 19 per cent for Miliband and 18 per cent for neither.

So The Guardian headline is justified by the fact that Cameron’s lead over both Brown and Miliband is the same at 21 per cent. But what are we to think about the fact that when asked the Cameron/Miliband question 23 per cent said nothing at all, whereas in response to Cameron/Brown question, only 14 per cent said nothing at all?

First, we can say definitely, that when given a choice between Cameron and a new Labour leader, Cameron’s vote falls from 42 per cent to 40 per cent. We can also say definitely, that the Milibandwagon is an invention of the media; his 19 per cent vote suggests that many people have not even heard that he had a band, still less are prepared to march behind it.

This is not so surprising. Although Miliband holds one of the three most important ministries, and is highly regarded by many Labour MPs and his cabinet colleagues, he has not had a high public profile. Even allowing for that, however, the message is unmistakeable. Not many people see him as a potential prime minister.

It is, however, too soon to write off his canditure. In he first blog I wrote about Miliband well over a year ago, I noted that he comes over as very cerebal. Not two brains, but three brains. This combined with his youth – and he looks even younger than he is – makes him seem closer to a very clever schoolboy rather than a leader of men and women.

If he is serious about his leadership bid he needs to get out more. On to the streets talking to the voters. Not easy to find the time, because his day job demands lots of reading of foreign office papers about the situation in Georgia, in Pakistan, in Iran, etc, etc. The Cold War is definitely back, and it will need all the efforts of European leaders like France’s Nicholas Sarcozy and Germany’s Angela Merkel, to stop it developing into a hot war between the still beligerant George W Bush and the new Stalinism of Vladimir Putin.

The Guardian/ICM poll does, however, contain a glimmer of hope for Labour. Cameron’s Conservatives lead Labour by 15 per cent which would mean a Conservative majority of over a hundred MPs in a general election. But compared with he last Guardian/ICM poll, Labour’s vote is one per cent higher at 29 per cent. The Conservative vote is also one per cent higher. But support for the Lib Dems is unchanged at 19 per cent and support for the other parties is down by one per cent.