Across the pond

We shall probably never know. Not least because her assassination happened in the middle of the Christmas holidays, when western news organizations operate on a skeleton staff, so that most of their trusted journalists can spend Christmas with their families. At the time of writing this blog there is not even agreement as to how she was killed.The Daily Mail proclaims that she was killed not by the gunman who shot her, nor by the explosion of the bomb immediately afterwards, but by striking her head on a lever attached to the sunroof of her car as she fell. This information came, not from one of the hundreds of mostly experienced and professional Daily Mail journalists, but from the official spokesman of the Pakistan government. President Musharraf had told the nation immediately after the killing that it was the work of terrorists. By today he was providing tape ‘evidence’ that it was the work of Al Qaeda and the Taliban. But the BBC, who have been talking to lots of people, report that the surgeon who treated Bhutto when she arrived at the hospital thinks she may have been killed by shrapnel wounds.There is no agreement amongst the news organizations either about whether the gunman was also the ‘suicide bomber’ who detonated the explosion or whether that was someone else. The coverage of this murder demonstrates the difficulty of doing decent journalism in the age in which we live. On the spot eye witness reporting cannot be what it seems when a public figure like Bhutto is addressing a mass rally in a public park. No journalist was near enough to be sure what happened, though a Guardian photographer was near enough to be able to say that the gun shots preceded the bomb explosion.The Washington Post reporter, however, did manage to find a Butto aide to interview who was standing next to Bhutto in the car. He was told that the shot caused her to fall. Which is good evidence about the sequence of events. But does not help to point the finger at who did it.In trying to make sense of this the analysts, including the experienced journalists, are in more agreement. No-one suggests that Musharraff ordered the killing, but most agree that he is desparately trying to find ways of staying in power. So the killers might have been men from the Pakistan military or intelligence services, aiming to please Musharraff, or bring to power another military leader. Equally likely as suspects are the Taleban supporters in their many different guises.Musharraff’s government has made it impossible to establish the facts. Bhutto has been buried without an autopsy, which would at least have proved whether she died from a gunshot, from shrapnel or a blow to the head. The huge emotions released by the murder makes it impossible to have the democratic election scheduled for 8 January. The future of Pakistan will be decided largely in Washington, where Bush will have to decide whether to stay with Musharraff, or begin to foster some other leader who might be more credible as a democratic leader, or go with another military figure.To anyone who has followed the history of Pakistan since its formation in 1948 that is nothing new. The partition of India was intended to resolve the conflicts by creating two nations, one mainly Muslim and one mainly Hindu. Pakistan’s democratic rulers, including Bhutto’s father, have failed to unify the many conflicting voices, so that Pakistan has mostly been governed by the military, despite British and American preferences for democratic rule.Both Britain and the US have gone with the army. Not least over Afghanistan and Iraq, where Musharraff has been a key friend of the West. Pakistan’s tragedy provides a major headache for the Bush and Brown administrations. Over these last few months they have been trying to salvage their policies by encouraging Bhutto to return to Pakistan and forge an alliance with Musharraff.They have been left with no clothes by this Christmas murder. For Brown this may prove far more serious than cash for honours or losing records. His problem now is not whether to take action to try and stop Iran making nuclear weapons, it is what to do about the leadership of a nation that already has nuclear weapons.